Recent blog articles and videos
June 19, 2025
Recent Blog Articles
The Year of the Tails (April 10, 2025)
After a negative 7-sigma two-day drop last week in the S&P 500 index, yesterday there was a positive 9-sigma rally. These tail events are rare and have historically occurred during large corrections and bear markets.
Trading and Investing: When the Going Gets Tough (April 15, 2025)
Avoiding the market pain during periods of turmoil by staying on the sidelines is often the cause of missing the next opportunity and even never recovering previous losses. When the going gets tough in trading, the tough get going.
Trend Following: Complexity, Dispersion, and the Role of Luck (April, 19, 2025)
Trend following is not a specific trading method but a large variety of methods that emerge from the high complexity of markets. As a result, depending on the method used, the performance of a group of trend followers exhibits high dispersion.
Is Gold the New Zero-Yield Perpetual Bond? (April 22, 2025)
After decades of accumulated debt due to irrational monetary and fiscal policies coupled with significant geopolitical challenges, an unavoidable regime change is occurring this year, with significant gains for gold.
An Extremely Rare 5-Sigma Event in the Stock Market (May 1, 2025)
April 2025 delivered multiple tail events. The latest was an extremely rare 5-sigma event.
Investing in Managed Futures is a Long Term Commitment (May 15, 2025)
Managed futures can experience long “winters,” high drawdowns, and long recovery periods. Investing in managed futures is a high-risk, long-term commitment.
The Elusive Gold-to-Silver Ratio (May 23, 2025)
Precious metals traders and gold bugs often make references to the gold-to-silver ratio and attempt to make inferences about price action in that market and especially about the potential of silver to rally. However, as we show in this article, this ratio is an elusive construct, and it offers no signal.
Investors Shy Away From Confusing Finance Terms (June 11, 2025)
Recently, investors have pushed back against confusing marketing that uses academic finance terminology. We briefly discuss volatility drag and convexity.
Recent Videos
Trading strategy design: Quant vs. speculation
Trading strategies for alpha
If you have any questions, please contact us.