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Business as Usual
Weekly Market Report
Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
Details of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
Market dynamics discussion and conclusion
Section 2 covers trends in US and foreign asset performance and an analysis of the drivers of the current market dynamic. We focus on the sustainability issues of the current market dynamic based on our quantitative analysis.
1. Performance of tactical ensemble and strategic allocation
For the week ending May 1, 2026:
The weekly strategies tactical ensemble (WRE) gained 1.6% with equal allocation. Year-to-date: +10.6%
The Price Action Lab strategic allocation (PALSA), which was launched late last year, gained 1.3%. Year-to-date: +11.3%.
The SPY ETF gained 0.9%. Year-to-date: +6%
For the open positions and new signals of WRE, see Section 3. We also include the allocation details and the performance of PALSA (Lev) when the volatility is matched up to that of the SPY ETF, with 1.7x leverage, which is up 19.2% year-to-date. The WRE (Lev) tactical allocation is up 16.5% year-to-date with 1.6x leverage to match the SPY ETF volatility.
We would also like to remind new subscribers that from December 18, 2023, to December 29, 2025, the WRE tactical ensemble maintained a long position in gold (GLD ETF) with a 25% allocation. This position gained 115.3% (unleveraged).
2. Price action analysis, weekly market summary, and market forecast
Stocks had a strong rally after March 30, 2026, and in the past 23 trading days, the S&P 500 index has gained 14%, while momentum remains strong (14-day RSI > 70). We will look at a few statistics of price action, at counterintuitive ramifications, and, more importantly, at how the current market regime could influence the performance of the market going forward.