Most macro analysts are guessing
In recent years, many investors have come to realize that most macro analysts are only geussing. The macro gurus, with some referred to as "furus", use convoluted terminology in an attempt to convince their audience that they possess special skills that allow them to make predictions about market direction. They usually point to their old credentials and employment in firms that mostly no longer exist. They employ techniques to create a cult following on social media while blocking anyone who is challenging them. They use analysis from various sources, often legitimate, in an effort to appear credible. However, it is easy to see that most of them lack basic quantitative skills.
Avoiding the trap
Avoiding the guru trap is the first step to successful trading and investing. Even simple systematic strategies have generated respectable risk-adjusted returns over the years and do not require trying to predict the market direction. Strategies provide well-defined entry and exit signals, which is something that a macro guru rarely does. Usually, they produce many different articles with various market forecasts, some even contradictory, and after major market moves, they point to the ones that are in agreement. Systematic strategies render this impossible, as they generate signals for both entry and exit.
The era of free money may be coming to an end
As we approach a point where deficits must decrease or even be eliminated, strategic investing and macro analysis will face challenges from headwinds.
We do not know when the next bear market will arrive. What we know is that investors who are not prepared will face unexpected losses.
Market timing has the potential to minimize risks. There are several choices available to investors. Click below for examples of solutions we have developed.